Texas Senate Race Is Now Down to One Point

Texas may be heading toward something it has not seen in years: a genuinely uncertain statewide Senate election decided not by party registration or political assumptions, but by who actually shows up.

A new Rasmussen Reports survey of likely Texas voters puts Democrat James Talarico at 46% and Republican Ken Paxton at 45%.

One point.

Libertarian Ted Brown receives 4%, while another 5% remain undecided. The poll’s margin of error is three percentage points, meaning the race is statistically tied.

Another recent Fox News poll found Talarico ahead 51%-49% among likely voters—again, just two points and inside that survey’s margin of error.

Different pollsters use different samples and methodologies, so those numbers should not be treated as one continuous trend line.

But taken together, they tell us something difficult to dispute:

Texas is close.

Look at What Is Happening With Older Voters

This is where the election becomes considerably more interesting.

The Rasmussen survey found Paxton leading Talarico 58%-38% among Texans 65 and older.

Among voters under 30, the situation is almost exactly reversed: Talarico leads 64%-31%.

That creates an enormous generational divide.

And turnout could determine which side of that divide matters most.

AARP’s September Texas survey found that 84% of voters age 50 and older described themselves as extremely motivated to vote, compared with 70% of voters under 50. Its own Senate poll also found Talarico ahead statewide while Paxton performed substantially better with older voters.

That is not a small detail buried inside a poll.

Older Americans historically participate at high rates, and Texas is approaching an election where even a modest turnout difference could matter in a race sitting somewhere between one and two points in multiple surveys.

For Democrats, that means enthusiasm among younger voters has to become actual ballots.

For Republicans, the age breakdown shows why the participation of older and more habitual voters could be especially consequential.

This Race Has Already Tightened From Earlier Polling

Earlier in the summer, some public polling showed Talarico with a more comfortable advantage.

A July Texas Public Opinion Research survey had him ahead 45%-40%, a five-point margin.

Now Rasmussen has the race at one point.

Fox has it at two.

Again, these are different surveys rather than proof that exactly three or four points have moved from one candidate to another.

But politically, the picture has changed.

Nobody looking at the newest likely-voter data can reasonably describe Texas as settled.

And that matters nationally.

Republicans currently control the Senate. Democrats are searching for Republican-held states where they can expand the map, and Texas has become one of the races receiving national attention.

At the same time, Republicans cannot treat Texas as a state that automatically takes care of itself.

A Midterm With Presidential-Level Attention?

There is another question underneath the polling.

Are voters beginning to treat this midterm more like a presidential election?

Texas has grown dramatically. The electorate is younger, more diverse and more politically competitive than it was a decade ago. At the same time, older Texans remain among the most reliable participants in elections.

That combination could produce a very different electorate depending on turnout.

The AARP numbers suggest unusually high motivation among older voters. Democratic primary participation has also been strong this cycle, while Republicans are attempting to activate voters who turned out heavily for Donald Trump in 2024 but are sometimes less consistent in non-presidential elections.

Nobody knows yet how many Texans will ultimately vote.

Claims of record turnout would be premature.

But the ingredients for an unusually engaged midterm are clearly there:

A one-point Senate race.

National attention.

A fight over control of Congress.

Heavy outside spending.

Strong generational differences.

And millions of voters who understand that Texas could influence the balance of power in Washington.

One Point Changes Everything

Perhaps the most revealing thing about this race is how little room either candidate now has for error.

One point can disappear because of turnout.

One point can disappear because of independents.

One point can disappear because one age group votes at a higher rate than another.

One point can disappear because undecided voters finally make a decision.

Rasmussen currently has 5% undecided, five times the size of Talarico’s lead.

That is why the Texas Senate contest should now be viewed for what it is:

A race that could be decided in the final weeks by participation rather than political reputation.

Texas may still be culturally and historically Republican.

But elections are not won by history.

They are won by voters who actually cast ballots.

And with the newest polling showing the Senate race separated by as little as one percentage point, November in Texas just became considerably more important.