Maine’s Senate Race Will Be For Susan Collins?

Maine does not fit neatly into America's red-state, blue-state political map.

That may be exactly why its 2026 Senate election has become so important.

Democrat Troy Jackson, a former Maine Senate president and logger from Aroostook County, currently holds a narrow advantage over Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is seeking a sixth term.

Recent polling has consistently placed the candidates within only a few percentage points of each other.

A CNN/SSRS survey conducted from August 31 through September 6 found:

Troy Jackson: 48%

Susan Collins: 45%

The 3-point difference was within the poll's 3.7-point margin of error.

A YouGov survey subsequently showed Jackson at 48% and Collins at 44%.

And even a Rasmussen poll with a Republican sponsor showed essentially the same close contest, with Jackson at 46% and Collins at 45%.

Current polling aggregates place Jackson ahead by roughly two to three percentage points.

That means the factual starting point is clear:

Jackson currently has the polling advantage.

But Susan Collins has seen this movie before.

Maine Is Not Simply a Democratic State

Start with the presidential results.

Kamala Harris won Maine statewide in 2024 with approximately 52.4%, compared with Donald Trump's 45.5%.

So unlike Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina and Alaska, Republicans cannot point to a Trump statewide victory and simply ask whether those same voters will return.

But Maine does something almost no other state does.

It divides its electoral votes.

And in Maine's more rural 2nd Congressional District, Trump won decisively.

Trump received approximately 53.75% there in 2024, compared with Harris at 44.22%, earning one of Maine's four electoral votes.

That political geography matters enormously.

Southern Maine, including Portland and much of the 1st Congressional District, is substantially more Democratic.

Northern and interior Maine are considerably more competitive and, in many communities, strongly Republican.

Collins has spent decades building support across both.

That is the coalition she needs again.

Susan Collins Has Already Outperformed the Republican Presidential Ticket

The most important comparison may come from 2020.

Joe Biden won Maine statewide with approximately 53.1% of the vote.

Donald Trump received about 44%.

Biden's margin was roughly nine points.

But on exactly the same Election Day, Susan Collins won reelection.

And she did not barely survive.

Collins received approximately 51%.

Democratic challenger Sara Gideon received approximately 42.4%.

Collins won by roughly 8.6 percentage points.

Think about what happened there.

Maine voters gave the Democratic presidential candidate a nine-point statewide victory while simultaneously giving the Republican Senate candidate an almost nine-point victory.

That represents an enormous amount of ticket splitting.

And it explains why national presidential results alone cannot tell us what will happen in Maine's Senate election.

Collins Has Built a Different Republican Brand

Collins has never positioned herself as a conventional national Republican.

She has represented Maine in the Senate since 1997 and has frequently emphasized independence, constituent service and bipartisanship.

Her relationship with Trump reflects that approach.

Collins has supported a large share of Trump's legislative positions while also breaking with him on several highly visible votes.

PolitiFact, citing CQ Roll Call, reported that Collins supported Trump's position approximately 95% of the time in 2025, while noting that she nevertheless opposed him on several significant issues and has differed from him more frequently than most Republican senators.

Trump himself has had an uneasy relationship with Collins.

But earlier this election cycle, while discussing her race, Trump spoke positively about Collins and described her as “sane,” despite their previous disagreements.

That complicated relationship may actually help explain Collins' longevity.

In deeply Republican parts of Maine, she can run as a Republican senator who has supported much of the Republican agenda.

In more moderate communities, she can point to occasions when she has separated herself from her own party.

Whether Maine voters still value that political identity is one of the central questions of 2026.

Troy Jackson Creates a Different Challenge

Democrats are not running a conventional Portland progressive against Collins.

Troy Jackson comes from northern Maine.

He grew up in Aroostook County, worked as a logger and built his political identity around labor and working-class economic issues.

That matters because those are precisely the kinds of communities where Democrats have lost significant ground nationally over the past decade.

Jackson's candidacy gives Democrats an opportunity to compete for voters who may support Trump or other Republicans at the presidential level but remain economically populist.

That is one reason the race cannot simply be reduced to Republican versus Democrat.

The contest is partly about which candidate can better reach Maine's politically independent working-class electorate.

The Democratic Candidate Changed Midway Through the Race

Jackson was not originally expected to be the Democratic nominee at this stage.

Graham Platner had won the Democratic primary overwhelmingly but later withdrew following serious allegations that disrupted his campaign.

Democrats subsequently turned to Jackson as their candidate against Collins.

That reset the race.

Jackson entered with significant political experience but without the national campaign infrastructure Platner had built.

Yet polling conducted since then has continued to show him competitive with Collins.

That suggests Democratic support in Maine is not entirely candidate-specific.

At the same time, Jackson is still introducing himself statewide to voters who may know Collins after nearly three decades in the Senate.

That difference in familiarity could matter during the final weeks.

The Race Is Close Enough That Persuadable Voters Matter

The CNN/SSRS polling contains another revealing number.

Approximately 18% of likely Maine voters either said they could still change their minds or had not completely settled on a candidate.

That is a substantial group in an election where the leading candidates are separated by only a few points.

It means campaign strategy is not simply about mobilizing Democrats and Republicans.

It is also about voters who genuinely move between parties.

Maine has many of them.

The state elected Republican Paul LePage governor.

It elected independent Angus King governor and later senator.

It has repeatedly elected Collins.

It has sent Democrats to Congress.

And in presidential elections, it has divided electoral votes between parties.

Political independence is not an anomaly in Maine.

It is part of the state's political identity.

Trump’s 2nd District Coalition Still Matters

Trump did not carry Maine statewide.

But Republicans should not overlook what happened in the 2nd District.

Trump received more than 212,000 votes there in 2024 and won approximately 53.75% of the district's presidential vote.

That district covers most of Maine geographically and includes many rural, small-town and working-class communities.

It is exactly the territory where both Collins and Jackson need to perform well.

Collins needs Republican voters who supported Trump to participate in the midterms.

Jackson needs to convince some of those same voters that his working-class background and economic message matter more than party identification.

That fight could determine the entire race.

There Is Even More Evidence of Maine’s Ticket-Splitting Culture

Consider another result from 2024.

Trump won the 2nd Congressional District.

But Democratic Rep. Jared Golden also narrowly won reelection there.

Golden finished with approximately 50.3% compared with Republican Austin Theriault's 49.7%.

So some Maine voters effectively said:

Trump for president.

Democrat for Congress.

That is Maine politics.

And it is another warning against assuming that presidential voting automatically determines a Senate result.

The same independent streak that can benefit Democrats can also benefit Collins.

Collins Has Survived Difficult Political Environments Before

National Democrats have targeted Collins repeatedly.

In 2020, her race against Sara Gideon attracted enormous national attention and spending.

Many public surveys showed Collins in a vulnerable position.

She nevertheless won by more than eight points.

That historical result does not tell us what will happen six years later.

The electorate has changed.

Collins is older.

The national political environment is different.

Jackson is not Gideon.

And current polling consistently shows Jackson slightly ahead.

But Collins' past performance establishes why Maine remains difficult to analyze exclusively through national partisan trends.

Her electoral coalition has historically extended beyond voters who identify as Republicans.

Jackson Is Trying to Attack Exactly That Reputation

Jackson's campaign has an obvious objective:

Convince voters that Collins' image as an independent Republican no longer reflects her voting record.

Democrats have repeatedly emphasized her support for much of Trump's agenda.

That argument is not entirely without factual basis.

As noted earlier, Collins voted in agreement with Trump's stated position approximately 95% of the time in 2025, according to CQ Roll Call data reviewed by PolitiFact.

Collins' response is essentially that raw vote percentages do not tell the entire story.

Many congressional votes are routine or broadly supported, while the votes where she has broken with Republican leadership have sometimes involved major national issues.

That creates a debate over what “independence” actually means.

Is it the percentage of votes?

Or the willingness to break with one's party when an issue becomes consequential?

Maine voters will have to decide how much that distinction matters to them.

The Economy Could Be Particularly Important in Northern Maine

Maine's economy presents political pressures that do not always resemble those of larger states.

Forestry.

Fishing.

Lobster.

Tourism.

Energy.

Manufacturing.

Cross-border trade with Canada.

All have outsized importance.

The state's proximity and economic relationship with Canada also means federal tariff policy has become particularly relevant during the campaign.

Recent reporting has identified Maine as one of several competitive Senate states where the U.S.-Canada trade dispute could become politically significant because of cross-border economic exposure.

Collins has attempted to demonstrate independence from the administration on certain tariff questions affecting Maine businesses.

Jackson is using economic concerns to argue that longtime incumbency has not solved the financial pressures confronting working families.

Again, both strategies target the same voters.

This Is Not a Normal Trump-State Turnout Story

Ohio's Republican argument begins with Trump winning statewide by 11 points.

Iowa begins with Trump winning by approximately 13.

Alaska begins with Trump winning by approximately 13.

North Carolina begins with Trump carrying the state for the third consecutive presidential election.

Maine is different.

Harris won statewide.

So Collins cannot simply attempt to recreate a Trump statewide majority that never existed.

Her path is more complicated.

She needs strong participation from Republican voters, particularly in Maine's 2nd District.

Then she needs something she has repeatedly obtained throughout her career:

voters who do not normally vote Republican.

That combination is precisely how she won in 2020.

And That Is Why the Race Remains So Interesting

Current polling points slightly toward Jackson.

A September Rasmussen survey had him ahead by one.

CNN/SSRS had him ahead by three.

YouGov had him ahead by four.

The polling average is roughly a two-to-three-point Jackson advantage.

Those numbers make Maine one of the closest Senate contests in the country.

But they exist alongside another set of facts.

Collins has won statewide five times.

She has demonstrated the ability to substantially outperform Republican presidential candidates.

She won by more than eight points in 2020 while Trump lost Maine statewide by roughly nine.

And there remains a large Republican electorate in rural Maine that Trump carried convincingly in 2024.

Jackson, meanwhile, has a working-class profile specifically designed to compete for some of those same voters.

That is why Maine cannot be understood through a simple red-versus-blue formula.

Maine May Be the Ultimate Ticket-Splitting Test

There are Senate races where the central question is turnout.

Maine adds another question:

How many voters are willing to cross party lines?

That may matter more here than almost anywhere else.

Jackson's current polling advantage is real.

So is Collins' history of outperforming her party.

Trump's 2024 statewide loss is real.

So is his decisive victory in the 2nd District.

Democratic strength around Portland is real.

So is Republican strength across much of rural Maine.

All of those political realities exist simultaneously.

And that is what makes the final weeks difficult to reduce to one number.

The November election will determine whether Maine voters still see Susan Collins as sufficiently distinct from the national Republican Party to give her another term, or whether Troy Jackson can combine Democratic voters with enough of Maine's working-class and independent electorate to replace her.

Maine did not vote Republican for president in 2024.

But Susan Collins has already demonstrated that she does not need Maine to vote Republican for president in order to win a Senate election.

That is precisely why this race remains one of the most closely watched contests of 2026.