Texas Democrats Are Leading in Senate Polls. Are You Voting?

Texas is experiencing something Republicans have rarely confronted in decades: a Democratic candidate consistently leading in U.S. Senate polling.

The University of Houston's October 19 survey shows James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton, 48% to 46%. Meanwhile, Governor Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa, 49% to 46%.

Neither margin establishes an election winner.

But voter participation is already breaking records.

Harris County reported approximately 104,600 in-person voters on October 19, surpassing its previous first-day midterm record. Dallas County recorded more than 76,000.

Here is what those numbers cannot tell us: which party those voters supported.

With voting underway, examining the candidates' actual records becomes more important than repeating campaign advertisements.

Gina Hinojosa: Four Legislative Records Worth Examining

1. State income taxes: In 2019, Hinojosa voted against HJR 38, strengthening Texas's constitutional prohibition on individual income taxes. In 2016, she discussed income taxes as a possible component of state revenue. Today, she says she opposes introducing one. Opposing the constitutional amendment did not itself constitute voting to impose the tax.

2. Property taxes: Abbott's campaign identifies 40 votes it argues would have allowed higher property taxes. A Houston Chronicle investigation found those votes primarily involved restrictions on local governments' taxing authority, not 40 direct tax increases. Hinojosa defends greater local flexibility.

3. School choice: Hinojosa opposed Senate Bill 2 in 2025, which established Texas's education savings account program. She argues public resources should prioritize public schools; supporters say the program expands parents' educational options.

4. Private facilities and policing: She voted against Senate Bill 8, restricting access to certain publicly controlled bathrooms and changing facilities according to sex, and House Bill 192, restricting certain county law-enforcement funding reductions. Neither vote establishes support for abolishing police departments.

James Talarico: Five Votes and Positions in the Record

The Democratic Senate nominee has emphasized Christianity, affordability, and education throughout his campaign. His legislative history includes:

1. School choice: Voted against SB 2 in 2025, opposing publicly financed education savings accounts for private schooling.

2. Medical treatment for minors: Voted against SB 14 in 2023, restricting specified gender-transition treatments for minors. He now says he opposes gender-reassignment surgeries for minors but considers the legislation overly broad.

3. Girls' school sports: Voted against HB 25 in 2021, which established participation requirements based on biological sex. His more recent statements acknowledge concerns about safety and competitive fairness.

4. Immigration enforcement: Opposed SB 4 in the 2023 special session, establishing state offenses related to unlawful entry and reentry.

5. Abortion: Supports abortion rights and opposes Texas's restrictive abortion laws, a substantial policy difference from Paxton.

These are identifiable legislative positions, not predictions about how either candidate would govern.

Muslim Developments Heading To Europe Results, and Texas Law

The proposed Muslim-centered development near Josephine, northeast of Dallas, has generated a separate legal and political controversy.

Here are the documented facts:

1. The development: The Meadow, previously EPIC City, is a proposed 402-acre project spanning Collin and Hunt counties.

2. Its scale: Plans include more than 1,000 residences, a mosque, a K–12 faith-based school, senior housing, and commercial facilities.

3. Federal investigation: HUD announced a fair-housing investigation in February 2026 involving allegations of religious and national-origin discrimination. Developers deny unlawful discrimination.

4. Texas law: House Bill 4211, enacted in 2025, prohibits certain residential agreements from requiring disputes to be resolved outside established state or federal courts.

Pew Research estimates that Muslims represent approximately 2% of Texas adults, compared with 67% identifying as Christian.

No verified evidence establishes that The Meadow's proposed school intends to teach hostility toward America or that a religious court would replace Texas law.

The enforceable principle is straightforward: religious freedom applies to everyone, and Texas law governs everyone.

November 3: The Decision Cannot Be Made by a Poll

Texas's Christian population is substantial, and they are not going to vote yet.

What is documented is that participation is increasing and the statewide contests remain competitive.

Early voting continues through October 30. Election Day is November 3.

For Texans still examining their choices, the essential questions concern taxes, education, parental authority, immigration, public safety, and constitutional freedoms.

And every eligible citizen retains the freedom to decide whether and how to participate.

When the results are announced November 3, the polls will become history. The ballots will determine Texas's next chapter.